The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Election. 2013. Princeton: Princeton University Press, forthcoming. With Lynn Vavreck.

Campaigns and Elections: Rules, Reality, Strategy, Choice. 2011. New York: W.W. Norton. With Daron Shaw, Matt Grossmann, and Keena Lipsitz.


"Stereotypes of Muslims and Support for the War on Terror." 2013. Journal of Politics, forthcoming. With Kim Gross.

"Watching from Afar: Media Consumptions Patterns Around the Arab Spring." 2013. American Behavioral Scientist, forthcoming. With Sean Aday, Henry Farrell, Deen Freelon, Marc Lynch, and Michael Dewar.

"One Vote Out of Step? The Effects of Salience Roll Call Votes in the 2010 Election." 2012. American Politics Research 40(5): 844-879. With Brendan Nyhan, Eric McGhee, Seth Masket, and Steven Greene.

"What Drives Partisan Turnout?" 2011. Political Behavior 32(3): 313-334. With Eric McGhee.

"Do Voters Perceive Negative Campaigns as Informative Campaigns?" 2010. American Politics Research 38(3): 502-530. With Matt Grossmann and Keena Lipsitz.

"Self-Segregation or Deliberation? Blog Readership, Participation, and Polarization in American Politics." 2010. Perspectives on Politics 8(1): 141-57. With Henry Farrell and Eric Lawrence.

"If Everyone Had Voted, Would Bubba and Dubya Have Won?" 2008. Presidential Studies Quarterly 38(3): 521-539. With Jack Citrin and Eric Schickler.

"Messages that Mobilize? Issue Publics and Issue Appeals in Campaign Advertising." 2008. Journal of Politics 70(2): 466-76. With Andrew Karch.

"Immigration and the Imagined Community in Europe and the United States." 2008. Political Studies 56(1): 33-56. With Jack Citrin.

"Can Institutions Create Unity in Multiethnic Societies?" 2007. American Political Science Review 101(4): 693-708. With Zachary Elkins.
Appendices | Data | Errata

"The Consequences of Campaign Agendas." 2007. American Politics Research 35(4): 465-488.

"European Opinion about Immigration: The Role of Identities, Interests, and Information." 2007. British Journal of Political Science 37(3): 477-504. With Jack Citrin.

"The Origins of Campaign Agendas." 2006. British Journal of Political Science 36(3): 407-436.

"What Voters Want from Political Campaign Communication." 2005. Political Communication 22(3): 337-354. With Christine Trost, Keena Lipsitz, and Matthew Grossmann.

"What If Everyone Voted? Simulating the Impact of Increased Turnout in Senate Elections." 2003. American Journal of Political Science 47(1): 75-90. With Jack Citrin and Eric Schickler.

"Remaking the House and Senate: Personal Power, Ideology, and the 1970s Reforms." 2003. Legislative Studies Quarterly 28(3): 297-333. With Eric Schickler and Eric McGhee.

"Intergenerational Warfare: The Senate Decentralizes Appropriations." 2000. Legislative Studies Quarterly 25(4): 551-575. With Eric Schickler.


"Blogs and Bullets II: New Media and Conflict After the Arab Spring." 2012. Report for the United States Institute of Peace. With Sean Aday, Henry Farrell, Marc Lynch, and Deen Freelon.

"Who Governs if Everyone Votes?" 2011. In Paul M. Sniderman and Benjamin Highton (eds.), Facing the Challenge of Democracy: Explorations in the Analysis of Public Opinion and Political Participation. Princeton: Princeton University Press. pp. 292-311. With Eric Schickler and Jack Citrin.

"Campaigns and Elections." 2011. In Adam Berinsky (ed.), New Directions in Public Opinion. New York: Routledge. pp. 241-57. With Jake Haselswerdt.

"The Political Scientist as a Blogger.” PS: Political Scientist and Politics 44(2): 267-271.

"How Political Science Can Help Journalism (and Still Let Journalists Be Journalists).” 2011. The Forum 9(1), Article 2. With Brendan Nyhan.

"Building a Political Science Public Sphere with Blogs.” 2010. The Forum: 8(3), Article 10. With Henry Farrell.

“Blogs and Bullets: New Media in Contentious Politics.” 2010. Report for the United States Institute of Peace. With Sean Aday, Henry Farrell, Marc Lynch, John Kelly, and Ethan Zuckerman.

"Electoral Politics." 2006. In Gillian Peele, Christopher J. Bailey, Bruce E. Cain, and B. Guy Peters (eds.), Developments in American Politics 5. Hampshire: Palgrave MacMillan.

"European Immigration in the People’s Court." 2006. In Craig A. Parsons and Timothy M. Smeeding (eds.), Immigration and the Transformation of Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. With Jack Citrin.

"The Study of Campaigns." 2006. In Henry Brady and Richard Johnston (eds.), Capturing Campaign Effects. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. With Henry Brady and Richard Johnston.

"More than Nationals: How Identity Choice Matters in the New Europe." 2004. In Richard Hermann, Thomas Risse, and Marilynn Brewer (eds.), Transnational Identities: Becoming European in the EU. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield. With Jack Citrin.

"Can There Be Europe Without Europeans? Problems of Identity in a Multinational Community." 2004. In Margaret G. Hermann (ed.), Advances in Political Psychology (vol. 1). New York: Pergamon Press. With Jack Citrin.

"The Causes and Consequences of Crossover Voting in the 1998 California Election." 2002. In Bruce Cain and Elisabeth Gerber (eds.), Voting at the Political Faultline: California’s Experiment with the Blanket Primary. Berkeley: University of California Press. With Jack Citrin and Jonathan Cohen.

"Addendum: Crossover Behavior in the March 2000 Primary." 2002. In Bruce Cain and Elisabeth Gerber (eds.), Voting at the Political Faultline: California’s Experiment with the Blanket Primary. Berkeley: University of California Press. With Thad Kousser.


Co-founder and contributor. The Monkey Cage. 2007-present.

Contributor. Wonkblog at the Washington Post. 2012-.

Contributor. Model Politics blog at YouGov. 2011-.

Contributor. 538 blog at the New York Times. 2011-2012.

"We Are the 96 Percent." New York Times. 24 September 2012. With Suzanne Mettler.

"Do Presidential Debates Really Matter?" Washington Monthly, Sepember/October 2012. A follow-up to this piece is here.

"Republican Rules Are Not to Blame for Primary War." Bloomberg View, 22 March 2012. With Josh Putnam.

"Will Obamacare Matter to U.S. Voters?" Al Jazeera, 5 March 2012.

"Midterm Postmortem." Boston Review, 11 November 2010. With Eric McGhee and Brendan Nyhan

"Dems Will Lose Seats—But Not Why You Think." New York Daily News. 28 May 2010. With Seth Masket.

"On Haiti, America's Short Attention Span Strikes Again." Salon. 30 April 2010.

"Political and Institutional Hurdles Prevent Serious Reform." Boston Review March/April 2010. With Sarah Binder and Andrew Gelman.

"On Spending, Conservatives Are Quite Conflicted." Salon. 24 February 2010.

"Stories and Stats: The Truth about Obama’s Victory Wasn’t in the Papers." Boston Review September/October 2009. With Andrew Gelman. Our response to commenters is here.

"Why an Abortion Consensus Is Unlikely: The Strange Dynamics of this Hot-Button Issue." New York Daily News. 22 May 2009. With Andrew Gelman.

Review of Eurostars and Eurocities (by Adrian Favell). 2009. West European Politics 32(3): 693-94.

Review of The Persuadable Voter (by D. Sunshine Hillygus and Todd Shields). 2009. Public Opinion Quarterly 73(1): 224-26.

"Who Listens to Bloggingheads?" Los Angeles Times. 13 July 2008. With Eric Lawrence.

"Patching Up the Parties." Los Angeles Times. 25 May 2008.

Review of New Media Campaigns and the Managed Citizen (by Philip Howard). 2006. Political Science Quarterly 121 (3): 529-30.


"Stories, Science, and Public Opinion about the Estate Tax."

"The Vodka is Potent, but the Meat is Rotten: Evaluating Measurement Equivalence Across Contexts." With Zachary Elkins.

"How Large the Huddled Masses? The Consequences of Public Perceptions of Immigrant Populations." With Jack Citrin.

"Group-centrism in American Public Opinion."

"Seeking Stateness." With Zachary Elkins.

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