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Frederick L. Joutz, Professor

Research Program on Forecasting, Director

Summary Experience

Fred Joutz is a Professor of Economics and Co-director of the Research Program on Forecasting at the George Washington University. His research focuses on macroeconomic and energy econometric modeling and forecasting. He contributes quarterly macroeconomic forecasts to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Economic Survey International ESI by the CES/Ifo Institute for Economic Research. He has served as a consultant and technical expert to Energy Information Administration, the IMF, the UAE, Uzbekistan, the American Gas Association, New England Power Pool, Consumers Energy, the U.S. and European Patent Offices, and other private corporations and government agencies. In addition, he has been a Research Scholar at the IMF. This work has involved writing research reports, developing econometric models and forecasting models, providing technical support, and conducting technical workshops and training sessions. It has included work on EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), Annual Energy Outlook (AEO and NEMS), and International Energy Outlook (IEO). He is a Senior Fellow of the US Association of Energy Economics. He has been an associate editor for Energy Economics and the International Journal of Forecasting. Previously he was a visiting professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, a visiting assistant professor at Oberlin College and worked at Resources for the Future.


  • 1987 - Ph.D. Economics, University of Washington (Thesis Advisor: Charles R. Nelson)
  • 1982 - M.A. Economics, University of British Columbia
  • 1979 - B.A. Individual Studies, International Economics, University of Maryland
  • Current Position

  • Professor (2004 to present) Department of Economics
  • Director of the Research Program on Forecasting
  • Board of Directors - Center for Economic Research
  • Member, International Institute for Economic Policy, Elliot School of International Affairs
  • Faculty Advisor, DBA Program at the United Arab Emirates University

  • Research(Top)

    Fred Joutz

    Current Research

    My research focuses on macroeconomic and energy econometric modeling and forecasting. I contribute quarterly macroeconomic forecasts to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Economic Survey International ESI by the CES/Ifo Institute for Economic Research. I have conducted research on energy modeling and forecasting from the local utility level to the international level. The latter has included work on Canada, Venezuela, Norway/Central Europe, Nigeria, UAE, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Singapore, Thailand, China, Taiwan, and tanker rates and ownership.

    There are three themes to my research agenda. The first two plays to my comparative advantage and third is one that will be accomplished in a more multidisciplinary environment.

    The first theme involves developing a quantitative approach to energy security for individual countries and internationally. I approach the multiple issues surrounding energy from an economist's perspective. This begins with attempting to measure energy security directly or through proxies. Then use the measures to analyze the opportunity costs from consumption and production patterns over time. I attach a recent paper in the area and plenary talk at the US Energy Economics Association annual conference. The status of this research is that is still in phase of building a global database which can be maintained. The work has been primarily conducted with Prakash Loungani a Senior Advisor in the IMF Research Department and Dr. Gail Cohen in the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Senate. At present we have a database going back to 1980 on fossil use and sources of supply for OECD countries. We have work to do constructing infrastructure security measures. In edition we have begun building the database for non-OECD countries. The objective is to have energy security measures for net energy consumers and net energy suppliers.

    The second theme involves modeling and forecasting macroeconometric-energy relationships and energy markets in emerging economies. This supports and aids in quantifying the empirical approach to energy security. In addition, it complements the policy analysis applications. The energy security measures can be refined and used in light of analyzing the response to energy shocks on macroeconomic performance in the short run and on economic growth. I have three active projects related to Asia and the Middle East.

    The most developed research involves work with a former PhD student, Poonpat Leesombatpiboon. He is currently a Senior Policy and Planning Analyst in the Ministry of Energy for Thailand. We have three projects one of which is complete, the other two close to submission for journals. The first is a paper on energy consumption by sector published in a special edition of Energy Economics on Southeast Asian Energy Issues. The second looks at the importance of energy (oil) in the short-run and long-run performance of the macroeconomy of Thailand. The final paper uses the empirical results from the earlier research to evaluate the economic welfare effects of a Strategic Petroleum Reserve for Thailand. We expect to continue working together on future energy economic issues for Thailand and the region.

    I have been doing research on Central Asia energy and macroeconomic issues the past few years with visiting researchers from Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan and a PhD student on Kazakhstan. The most important research is with a current Fulbright Fellow I am hosting from the Institute for Economic Development and Central Bank. We are building a macroeconometric model for forecasting and policy analysis. The global oil market, transportation and geopolitical factors help explain the past and drive the future of these economies.

    Last summer, I finally had an opportunity to visit the Middle East. I gave training course on macroeconometric modeling and forecasting for staff in the UAE Ministry of Presidential Affairs. At the end we built a small model of the economy. I have been invited back to conduct joint research. In addition I am an international faculty advisor for the UAE University Doctors of Business Administration program.


    Fred Joutz

    Select Publications   Refereed Articles in Books   Articles in Conference Proceedings   Technical Reports
    Books   Book Reviews   Papers Under Submission   Working Papers

    Select Publications(Top of Publications)

    Refereed Articles in Books(Top of Publications)

    Articles in Conference Proceedings(Top of Publications)

    Technical Reports(Top of Publications)

    Books(Top of Publications)

    Book Reviews(Top of Publications)

    Papers Under Submission(Top of Publications)

    Working Papers(Top of Publications)

    (Top of Publications)


    Fred Joutz

    Undergraduate Courses

    Graduate Courses

    Funded Research and Awards(Top)

    Fred Joutz

    Funded Research

    Fellowships and Awards


    Fred Joutz


    University Service

    Previous Positions

    Professional Activities(Top)

    Fred Joutz


    Journal Referee

    American Economic Review, The Journal of Political Economy, Economic Inquiry, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and control, Applied Economics, International Journal of Forecasting, The Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Financial Econometrics, Economic Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Energy Economics, Energy Journal, Energy Policy, Eastern Economic Journal, Oxford Journal of Business and Statistics, Quarterly Journal of Economics and Business, Journal of Economic Education, The American Economist, NSF review, Bioresources Technology.




    Ph.D. Advisor(Top)

    Fred Joutz

    Ph.D. Dissertations - Economics

    Poonpat LeespoonpatiboomThailand's Energy Security: Strategic Petroleum Reserve and its Economic ImpactsChair2010
    Anastasia GuschinaThree Essays on the Evolution of Government Domestic Debt in the Emerging Market CountriesMember2009
    Ishi KotaroThree Essays in Time Series MacroeconometricsChair2009
    Cigdem AkimThree Essays in Interational MacroeconomicsChair2009
    Yongjae KwonExtreme Value Estimator: Their Long-Memory Feature and Forecasting Performances in US Stock IndecesMember2009
    Issoufe SamakeEmpirical Investigations of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: An Application to NigeriaCo-Chair2008
    Laura I SchultzMeasuring the Returns to National R&D: Public and PrivateCo-Chair2007
    Elaine FreyTechnology Diffusion and Environmental Regulation: Evidence from Electric Utilities under the Clean Air ActMember2007
    Amany El-AnshasyOil Prices, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Growth in Oil Exporting CountriesMember2006
    Christian CrowleyThree Essays in Natural Resource Economics and the EnvironmentCo-Chair2005
    Di GuoModeling Natural Gas DemandMember2005
    Thomas GardnerCongressional Voting and Energy Research and DevelopmentChair2004
    Edna VillaModeling Output and Inflation in the Philippines: An Application of VAR Modeling with contemporaneous and Long-Run RestrictionsChair2003
    William TreacyThe Adjustment of Markets and Expectations to Monetary Policy Actions and Other Significant Information EventsChair2002
    Yasser AbdihA Time Series Approach To Modeling Economic GrowthChair2003
    Jaime VelasquezExports, Real Exchange Rate Movements in Mexico: An Error Correction ApproachChair2002
    Nellie Lezcayo-AndersonMoney Demand: El SalvadorChair2000
    Elif Akbostanci OzkazancAn Error Correction Model for Exchange Rates with Currency Substitution: Canadian Dollar-U.S. Dollar CaseChair1998
    Harry VroomenSeasonality, Unit Roots, and Commodity PricesChair1995
    Chia-Hsin HuFinancial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from TaiwanCo-Chair2002
    Charolambros TsangaridesA Bayesian Approach to Analyzing Economic Growth and PovertyCo-Chair2003
    Leonard LoebachForecasting with a Stochastic Growth ModelCo-Chair2000
    Subash SriramDemand for M2 in MalaysiaCo-Chair1998
    James HrubovcakFarm Land Values and US Monetary PolicyCo-Chair1995
    Abdu SarreBank Market Structure, Financial Repression, and Economic DevelopmentMember2004
    Peter KunzelMarket Inefficiencies in the Real Estate Market: Implications for Price DynamicsMember2004
    Javier Meseguer (AU student)GARCH Analysis from a Bayesian PerspectiveMember2004
    Jino ChoiPrice Elasticities of Public-Sector Electricity Demand: The Case of U.S. Navy BasesMember2002
    Russell TuckerStrategic Bidding and Market Power in Restructured Electricity Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the PJM Energy MarketMember2001
    Valerie ReppelinTrade and Environmental Policy: An Analysis of the Technology EffectMember1999
    Elizabeth PittmanR&D Investment, Financing, Firm Heterogeneity and Tax Policy: An Examination of the U.S. Research and Experimentation Tax CreditMember1998
    Scott AndersonFinancial Market Volatility and Economic Growth: A Non-Linear ApproachMember1999
    Boem Chol CinMonetary Policy Linkages and the Korean EconomyMember1997
    Jeffery PaulinMeasurement Error in Consumption and IncomeMember1998
    Paul McCardleEnergy Markets and HysteresisMember1997
    Andreas Escalante (AU student)Elasticities of Substitution in a Bayesian FrameworkMember1997
    Juan-Carlos GuevaraSpeculative Bubbles in Real Estate PricesMember1996
    Ali GungorMember1996
    Amy HendersonNon-Linear Models of Exchange Rate DeterminationMember1995
    Yoon HeoGovernment Subsidies and Economic Growth in KoreaMember1994
    Richard BrownBank Market Structure and Risk AversionMember1994
    Mohammed Al-TrashMember1994
    Jose AlmeidaA Monetary History of Central Banking in BrazilMember1991
    Ken BorgheseEssays on Consumption TheoryMember1991
    Seth GreenblattComputational Efficiency and EconometricsMember1991
    Mona HaddadhMember1991
    Naif Al-MoutariStructural VAR Models of Oil Exporting CountriesMember1991

    Ph.D. Dissertations - Finance

    Lynne KellyTwo Essays in International Research FinanceMember2004
    Shang-Mei LeeEssays on Consumption and EquitiesMember2002
    Mohammed Ihab KiraThe Equity Premium PuzzlesMember2002
    Adrian CowanEssays on Asset PricingCo-Chair2000
    Raed Al'GohailEssays on CAPM: The Fama ApproachMember1999
    William MaxwellEssays on Credit Spreads and Non-Investment Grade BondsCo-Chair1998
    Anthony RichardsEssays on Soveriegn Debt PricingMember1998
    Adrian Michelle CowanConditional Volatility Modeling in FinanceChair1996


    Fred Joutz

    Federal Government

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1989-present: I have served as an expert consultant to the Office of Statistical Standards and the Office of Energy Markets and End Use. My responsibilities have included: writing technical reports, developing pilot models, reviewing short term and long term energy demand and supply models and forecasts, evaluation of renewable energy supplies and projections, and the analysis of energy and environmental policy scenarios requested by the U.S. Congress. I have built portions of and reviewed components of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the Regional Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The components in the NEMS were the Electricity Market Module, Renewable Fuels Module, Petroleum Market Module, Macroeconomic Activity Module, and International Market Module. These modules feed information into the analysis of environmental and green-house gas emissions for climate change analysis. My work on the STEO has involved developing and testing the econometric electricity consumption forecasting model by U.S. region and sector, a pilot international energy model, and analyzing the impact of natural gas price shocks on the industrial sector in the U.S. In addition, I have provided technical assistance to other U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) through EIA. This has included reviewing the impacts of world oil markets on natural gas prices, the U.S. economy, and strategic petroleum reserves. I designed a pilot theoretical and macroeconometric model for the U.S. to examine the sensitivity to oil price shocks. This research supported the Office of Oil and Gas and DoE's Office of Fossil Energy and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

    U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) 1992-present: I have been an expert consultant to the Office of Planning and Evaluation, Office of Finance, and the Office of the Commissioner. My responsibilities have been to provide economic and technical advice and write reports on modeling and forecasting domestic and international patent activities. I have served and participated as an Economic and Forecasting Expert to U.S. delegation at Trilateral Patent Statistics Group meetings in the U.S., the European Patent Office in Munich, Germany and the World Intellectual Property Office in Geneva, Switzerland. In other work, I have built two planning models. The first was a Simulation Model Calculator in Excel to analyze traffic at the computer workstations in the patent search facility and investment planning for the USPTO's move to Alexandria. The second involved calculating the flow in the patent process from applications to examination and patent pendency issues given the level and skills of the patent examiner corps.

    Economic Research Service (ERS), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) 1995-99: I worked as a technical consultant to the ERS. I worked on projects and wrote technical reports evaluating forecasts of food price series and provided alternative forecasting models. In addition, I wrote a report describing the process for making agricultural output and price forecasts for ERS and USDA Outlook publications.

    Training Courses

    I have provided short courses (2-5 days) for the EIA and Timberlake Consultants: The courses for Timberlake have been in New York City Los Angeles, CA and Milan, Italy for clients from Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, U.K., Norway, Ghana, and Brazil. I have assisted David Hendry teaching a course on forecasting and Neil Ericsson teaching a course on modeling at the IMF annually for four years. In addtion, I have taught courses at the Norwegian Science and Technology Institute in Trondheim on Econometric Time Series Modeling. Also, I have taught an applied macroeconometric modeling and forecasting course for the Ministry of Presidential Affairs in the UAE.

    Two-week Survey of Macroeconomics course September, 1995: At the International Business School, Management Training Center (USA) Inc. The students were senior Russian government officials and managers of private firms.

    One-day workshops at Meridian House in Washington, D.C.: For visiting foreign journalists and government officials on the U.S. economy over the last three years. The visitors are sponsored by USAID and have come from Hungary, Russia, Kirghizstan, and Romania.

    Private Sector

    American Gas Association 2006-07: I served as an economic consultant analyzing the price elasticity of residential natural gas demand from a sample of natural gas utility companies in different regions of the United States. The work will be performed in close consultation with the Policy Analysis Group and the Chief Economist of AGA. We developed and estimated dynamic models of natural gas demand incorporating income, conservation, and technical efficiency effects.

    ISO New England PowerPool 2006: I served as expert consultant reviewing and evaluating the long-run energy and seasonal peak load forecast methodologies by the ISO-NE for the region. In addition, I developed alternative forecasting models to compare with the existing models.

    Exelon Power Management: 2004: I served as an economic forecasting consultant on sectoral electricity and natural gas energy sales, number of customers, and revenue. The services consisted of a qualitative evaluation of the current forecasting tools, recommendations for enhancements that could improve forecast accuracy, and provide assistance in the implementation of the enhancements.

    Charles River Associates 2000-2002: I served as a consultant providing expertise on time series econometric and forecasting issues. My responsibilities were to provide written reports and make forecasts on the construction products industry. I provided support for testimony before the U.S. International Trade Commission.

    PriceWaterhouseCoopers Inc. 1999: I served as a consultant writing a report on measuring Intangible Capital. The project involved analyzing different valuation methods of computing the lives of intangible assets like R&D capital.

    Trade Resources, Inc 1998: I served as a consultant providing econometric advice on time series modeling and forecasting. I testified as an expert witness in an anti-dumping dispute before the Canadian International Trade Tribunal. My task was to review existing research and develop an economic forecasting model for a sector in the construction industry.

    Bivings Woodell, Inc. 1997: I served as an expert consultant on two projects examining the role and importance of stock markets in the U.S. economy, conducted studies on the characteristics of firms in a stock market, and summarized academic research on pricing in asset markets. The first evaluated the performance of the top 125 firms listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The second produced an assessment of the employment and economic contributions from the chemical industry. This involved making projections from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data and input-output tables.

    Chase Manhattan Bank - Office of Global Risk Management 1990: I conducted empirical research on asset pricing models.

    Flight Resources Inc., Gaithersburg, MD 1988 to 1991: I served as an Economist-Board Member. The firm managed and operated small municipal airports. My responsibilities were to provide general economic advice and forecast airport revenues and fuel prices.

    Seattle City Light - Economic Analyst-Paid Intern 1983-86: I examined the economic feasibility of wood-fired generating plants and determining the cost of wood fuel supply.

    Contact Information(Top)

    Fred Joutz

    Department of Economics
    The George Washington University
    2115 G St., NW, Monroe 340
    Washington, DC 20052
    Phone: (202) 994-6150, Fax: (202) 994-6147
    Washington, DC 20052

    Office: Monroe 313
    Phone: (202) 994-4899

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