Election Night News & Voter Turnout:
Solving the Projection Puzzle William C. Adams
"Adams has put together a remarkable and persuasive collection of studies on an important issue, using a unique, multi-method approach that sets a great example for scholarship."
- Trevor Thompson,
Public Opinion Quarterly
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In eight of the past dozen presidential elections, TV networks proclaimed the winner as early as three hours before polls closed in Western states. Did these projections decrease voter turnout?

Carefully examining evidence from every presidential election held from 1960 through 2004, William Adams finds definitive answers to this long-standing, controversial question.

Professor Adams utilizes a wide variety of methods - including survey research, a "natural experiment," focus groups, and a time series analysis - all of which yield consistent and surprising findings.

© William C. Adams 2006