Working Papers:

"Political Regime Changes and the Turning Points of Economic Growth." (Job Market Paper)

Abstract:
In this paper I investigate whether the quality of political institutions can help predict the turning points in the coun-
try's growth history. I show that controlling for various economic factors, both democratic and autocratic political
regime changes help induce economic takeoffs. The effect, however, is non-linear, as I find evidence that countries
with low income per capita benefits less from democratization. This threshold level of income is estimated using
Hansen's threshold regression methodology.
I also find similar non-linearity in the coefficients for trade openness and the quality of political institutions. In particular,
the increase in the initial level of the country's democratization matters for growth, but only for countries with already
high democracy scores. In addition, I analyze the model's "forecast skill" and show, that the model developed in the paper
predicts growth takeoffs significantly better than the baseline constant probability model.
 

"The International Spillover Effects of Political Transitions"

Abstract:
Recent empirical literature on the democracy-growth nexus finds that democratization overall improves economic
growth, but there is evidence of significant heterogeneity in the outcomes for different countries. In this paper I focus
on quantifying one of the possible causes of such heterogeneity. The paper addresses the possibility of cross-country
political spillover effects that impact economic growth. The preliminary results of the panel data estimation support
the hypothesis that countries surrounded by relatively more autocratic neighbors will also experience a more difficult
economic adjustment following democratization. In particular, this paper presents evidence that for countries which
have experienced democratization, moving away from their neighborhoods on the political spectrum implies a slower
income per capita growth in the long-run.
 

"Disasters Followed by Miracles?: Exploring the Link Between Financial Crises and Growth"

Abstract
Are financial crises associated with long-term economic growth? Both empirical and theoretical studies suggest
that financial openness and risk-taking alleviate financial bottlenecks, ease credit constraints and thus benefit the
country's long run growth prospects. In this paper I further analyze the link between financial crises and long-term
growth patterns. The preliminary analysis suggests that not all types of crises are beneficial for growth. In particular
twin-crises episodes seem to be strongly associated with growth collapses, while the currency crises are significant
predictors of growth take-offs.
 

"Political Neighborhoods and Economic Growth: Investigation into the Determinants of Growth
Outcomes in the Aftermath of Political Transitions"

Abstract:
In this paper I analyze the sources of growth slowdown for countries that move politically away from their neigh-
borhoods. In particular, I investigate whether political spillover effects in growth can be attributed to the decline
in investment and bilateral trade patterns between the neighboring countries. Preliminary analysis suggests that
countries which move politically away from their neighborhoods following democratization, experience a decline in
investment as a share of GDP as well as the decline in the bilateral trade volumes with their major trading partners.

Future Research Agenda:
My future research agenda is to investigate the complex causal linkages between political institutions and long-term economic performance. In particular, while my study partially controls for the effects of endogeneity between growth and political regime changes, a two-way feedback between political institutions and economic performance cannot be ruled out.

In addition, I am interested in how various types of financial shocks may affect a country's economic institutions and ultimately its long-run growth. Do occasional crises tend to bring reform and strengthen a country's financial institutions in the long run? The historical evolution of a country's institutional framework still remains an open question and an avenue for future research.