Tara M. Sinclair
Associate Professor of Economics
and International Affairs
Tara M. Sinclair
Associate Professor of Economics
and International Affairs
Welcome to my website! I received my Ph.D. from Washington University in St. Louis in May of 2005 and have been in the economics department at the George Washington University since August of 2005. My research is in the broad field of empirical macroeconomics. I focus on time series analysis which examines historical patterns in data both to understand the current and past structure of our economy as well as to forecast future economic events. Thus far, my research questions have focused on two main areas of interest to economists and policymakers. The first area focuses on developing and applying statistical time series models, primarily the correlated unobserved components model, to macroeconomic problems, specifically to the causes of economic growth and fluctuations. The second examines the role of macroeconomic forecasts in monetary policy. These two research areas address important questions for both macroeconomic theory and policy. They are tied together by a desire to better understand recessions and economic growth. You can also learn more about my presentations, publications, and working papers below.
Beyond my membership in the GWU economics department I am also:
- Co-director of the Research Program on Forecasting, part of the Center of Economic Research and the Department of Economics at George Washington University.
- An author for the Institute for International Economic Policy Blog.
- A member of the Institute for International Economic Policy and the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies of the Elliott School of International Affairs.
- A GW Institute of Public Policy Research Affiliate.
- A GW-CIBER Scholar.
- A Regulatory Studies Center Scholar.
Outside GW, I am:
- A member of the executive committee of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics.
- A regular contributor to the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
- A member of the Federal Forecasters Consortium Governing Board.
- The organizer of the Special Interest Group (SIG) on Time Series Analysis for the Society of Computational Economics.
- A member of the Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN).
Click here for a PDF version of my CV--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
News
- 1/20/12: Check out my first post for the Institute for International Economic Policy Blog.
- 12/19/11: Here is a link to a Regulatory Policy Commentary, "The Private Sector Costs of the Regulators’ Budget" with Kathryn Vesey. I also blogged about it as a guest on econbrowser.
- 9/1/11: My title has changed: I am now an Associate Professor of Economics and International Affairs!
- 8/29/11: I am now a a GW-CIBER Scholar. My current 2011-2012 project funded by GW-CIBER is titled "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions." Working paper coming soon!
- 8/18/11: Here is a video abstract of Directional Forecasts of GDP and Inflation: A Joint Evaluation with an Application to Federal Reserve Predictions, with H.O. Stekler and Lindsay Kitzinger, that was published in Applied Economics.
- 8/17/11: I was quoted in a New York Times article regarding my research with Herman Stekler, Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansions.
- 8/16/11: I am now a George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center Scholar.
- 8/1/11: Here's a link to a Q&A I did about the debt ceiling for GW Today.
- 6/28/11: Here are my slides from the Weidenbaum Center Media Retreat in Cape Cod, MA: Macreconomic Data in Real Time.
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Courses
- Spring 2011: Econ 2102 and Econ 6218: Intermediate Macroeconomic Theory
- Fall 2011: Econ/Stat 2123: Introduction to Econometrics
- Spring 2012: Econ 8379: Graduate Laboratory in Applied Econometrics - Macroeconomics
Econ 4198W: Proseminar in Economics
More course information is available on Blackboard, but if you do not have access to Blackboard here at GW, please email me for a copy of my syllabus or other information.
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Upcoming Seminar and Conference PresentationsClick here for the GW University Macro-International Seminar Schedule!
Click here for the GW University Seminar on Forecasting Schedule!
April 5-6, 2012
I will be presenting "Why are Shocks to Trend and Cycle So Commonly Negatively Correlated?" (joint with Xiaohan Ma) at the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 20th Annual Symposium at Istanbul Bilgi University in Istanbul, Turkey.April 16, 2012
I will be giving a seminar at the University of Pennsylvania.May 31 - June 1, 2012
I will be giving a seminar at the Bank of Canada.June 27-29, 2012
I am on the organizing committee of the 18th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance, Prague, Czech Republic. The Special Interest Group on Time Series Analysis will be focused on "Inflation Dynamics." Here is the call for papers - submissions are due January 31st!--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Journal Article Publications
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- New! Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates with H.O. Stekler, forthcoming in the special issue on Flash Indicators of the International Journal of Forecasting.
- Link to the working paper version.
- Here is a New York Times article where I am quoted regarding this paper.
- Forecasting Data Vintages, forthcoming in the special issue on Flash Indicators of the International Journal of Forecasting.
- This paper is a comment on Clements and Galvão’s “Forecasting with Vector Autoregressive Models of Data Vintages: US output growth and inflation” which is forthcoming in the same issue.
- Link to the working paper version.
- Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation with Edward N. Gamber, H.O. Stekler, and Elizabeth Reid forthcoming in the International Journal of Forecasting.
- Link to the working paper version.
- Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach with Sinchan Mitra, forthcoming in Macroeconomic Dynamics.
- Link to the working paper version.
- Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics Vol. 14: Iss.1, Article 3 (2010).
- Link to the working paper version.
- Here's a link to an updated version of the paper that I presented at the Brookings Institution on November 6, 2009.
- Here's a link to an Bloomberg article citing this paper.
- Here's a link to a blog by Brad DeLong citing this article.
- Programs and Data.
- Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? with Fred Joutz and H.O. Stekler, Economics Letters 108 (2010), pp. 28-32.
- Link to the working paper version.
- Here's a link to a Business Standard article citing this paper.
- This paper has been on SSRN's Top Ten download list for ERN: Forecasting & Simulation (Employment) (Topic), ERN: Forecasting & Simulation (Employment) (Topic), ERN: Forecasting & Simulation (Monetary) (Topic) and ERN: Forecasting & Simulation (Prices) (Topic).
- Directional Forecasts of GDP and Inflation: A Joint Evaluation with an Application to Federal Reserve Predictions, with H.O. Stekler and Lindsay Kitzinger, Applied Economics, Volume 42, Issue 18 July 2010 , pages 2289 - 2297.
- Here is a video abstract of the paper.
- Link to the working paper version.
- The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 41, No. 2–3 (March–April 2009) pages 529-542.
- Link to the working paper version.
- Programs and Data.
- Here's a link to a RATS program posted by Tom Doen at Estima that replicates my results.
- Forecast Evaluation of AveAve Forecasts in the Global VAR Context with H.O. Stekler, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 25 (2009), pp. 693-696 (invited commentary).
- Link to the working paper version.
- Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Pension Coverage, with Leora Friedberg and Michael Owyang, Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy Vol. 6: Iss. 1, Article 14 (2006).
- Links to working paper versions:
- The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory with William A. Barnett and Ki-Hong Choi, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Supplement (December, 2002).
- Link to working paper version.
Conference Volume Articles
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- Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World with Yueqing Jia
- Prepared for the CESifo Venice Summer Institute workshop on The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy and to be published in a conference volume by MIT press.
Working Papers
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- New! "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," with H.O. Stekler and Warren Carnow.
- IMF Working Paper No. 11/79: Mongolia: Measuring The Output Gap, with Julia Bersch of the IMF.
- How Well Does “Core” CPI Measure Long-Run Inflation? with Michael Bradley and Dennis Jansen.
- Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between the US and China with GWU PhD student Yueqing Jia.
- Research project funded by GW-CIBER
- “A Likelihood Ratio Test of Stationarity Based on a Correlated Unobserved Components Model” with James Morley and Irina Panovska.
Contact InformationDepartment of Economics and the Elliott School of International Affairs
The George Washington University
Monroe/Hall of Government 314
2115 G Street NW
Washington, DC 20052
Phone: (202) 994-7988
Fax: (202) 994-6147
Email: tsinc@gwu.eduPlease also visit my SSRN Page: http://ssrn.com/author=470127
and my Selected Works page: http://works.bepress.com/tara_sinclair/Here's a link to my ESIA biography: http://www.gwu.edu/~elliott/faculty/sinclair.cfm
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Last modified February 7, 2012.
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