Tara M. Sinclair
Assistant Professor of Economics
and International Affairs
Tara M. Sinclair
Assistant Professor of Economics
and International Affairs
Welcome to my web site! This fall will begin my fourth year at GW. I received my Ph.D. from Washington University in St. Louis in May of 2005. My research interests are macroeconomics and time series econometrics. My favorite model is the multivariate correlated unobserved components model. I am particularly interested in the relationship between business cycles and growth and the role of labor markets. I have found myself lately also working on the intersection of forecasts and monetary policy.
I am co-director of the Research Program on Forecasting, part of the Center of Economic Research and the Department of Economics at George Washington University. I am also a member of the Institute for International Economic Policy and the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies of the Elliott School of International Affairs. Outside GW, I am a member of the Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN) and the Federal Forecasters Consortium Governing Board planning the Federal Forecasters Conference for 2009. I am also the organizer of the Special Interest Group (SIG) on Time Series Analysis for the Society of Computational Economics and I regularly contribute to the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Click here for a PDF version of my CV
Click here for my occasional comments on economic-related news that I call Economic "Newsviews"
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Courses
- Spring 2009:
Econ 379: Graduate Laboratory in Applied Econometrics - Macroeconomics
- Fall 2009:
Econ/Stat 123: Introduction to Econometrics
- Spring 2010:
Econ 102: Intermediate Macroeconomic TheoryMore course information is available on Blackboard, but if you do not have access to Blackboard here at GW, please email me for a copy of my syllabus or other information.
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Upcoming Seminar and Conference PresentationsClick here for the GW University Macro-International Seminar Schedule!
August 3, 2009
I will present "Bootstrap Tests of Stationarity" at the Joint Statistical Meetings here in Washington, DC.
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Publications
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- NEW! Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations, forthcoming in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics.
- Here's a link to an Bloomberg article citing this paper.
- Programs and Data.
- The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate,Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 41, No. 2–3 (March–April 2009)
- Forecast Evaluation of AveAve Forecasts in the Global VAR Context with H.O. Stekler, forthcoming in International Journal of Forecasting (invited commentary).
- Directional Forecasts of GDP and Inflation: A Joint Evaluation with an Application to Federal Reserve Predictions, with H.O. Stekler and Lindsay Kitzinger, forthcoming in Applied Economics.
- Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Pension Coverage, with Leora Friedberg and Michael Owyang, Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy: Vol. 6: No. 1, Article 14 (2006). Working paper versions are available as: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2003-038 and NBER Working Paper No. 11808.
- The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory," with William A. Barnett and Ki-Hong Choi, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Supplement (December, 2002).
Working Papers
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- Bootstrap Tests of Stationarity with James Morley.
- Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach with Sinchan Mitra.
- Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? with Fred Joutz and H.O. Stekler.
- Multivariate Forecast Errors and the Taylor Rule with Edward N. Gamber, H.O. Stekler, and Elizabeth Reid.
Work in Progress
- “How Well Does “Core” CPI Measure Long-Run Inflation?” with Michael Bradley and Dennis Jansen.
- “Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between the US and China,” with Yueqing Jia.
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- Research project funded by GW-CIBER
- “Cointegration Analysis with Unobserved Components Models,” with James Morley.
- “Monetary Policy Shocks and the Taylor Rule,” with Ed Gamber.
Contact InformationDepartment of Economics and the Elliott School of International Affairs
The George Washington University
Monroe/Hall of Government 314
2115 G Street NW
Washington, DC 20052
Phone: (202) 994-7988
Fax: (202) 994-6147
Email: tsinc@gwu.eduPlease also visit my SSRN Page: http://ssrn.com/author=470127
and my Selected Works page: http://works.bepress.com/tara_sinclair/Here's a link to my ESIA biography: http://www.gwu.edu/~elliott/faculty/sinclair.cfm
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Last modified July 3, 2009.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this page are those of the page author. The contents of this page have not been reviewed or approved by The George Washington University.