Publications
Articles Published
Confessions of a Data Junkie: The Discovery of Tourism Economics
This is a memoir of my experiences, successes and failures in endeavoring to improve the measurement of the economic impact of tourism over 40 years.
Published as chapter 5 in Larry Dwyer, editor, The Discovery Of Tourism Economics, Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing, Ltd., 2011, pp. 57-72. ISBN 9780857246813
6 Measuring and Interpreting the Economic Impact of Tourism: 20/20 Hindsight and Foresight (with Egon Smeral)
This chapter was prepared as a presentation to the International Academy for the Study of Tourism at its meeting in June 2009. It presents the authors' experience and findings in studying the economic impact of tourism for the last 30 years and looks forward to the work to be done to 2020. It addresses the domain of the economic impact of tourism and the individual topics of multiplier analysis, computable general equilibrium models, the tourism satellite account, impacts of mega-events, intervention models and future research directions.
Published as chapter 6 in Douglas G. Pearce and Richard W. Butler (2010), TOURISM RESEARCH; A 20-20 VISION, Oxford, England: Goodfellow Publishing, pp. 67-79. ISBN 978-1-906884-10-9
Impacts of the World Recession and Economic Crisis on Tourism: North America (with J.R.B. Ritchies and C.M.A. Molinar)
This article has been prepared as part of the International Academy for the Study of Tourism's initiative to provide a better understanding of the impact that the economic crisis of 2008-2009 has had, is having, and will have on the well-being and performance of the global tourism industry. More specifically, it seeks to serve as an information "backgrounder" for the North American components of the study. As such, it provides a concise assessment of the current and evolving status of the tourism sector in each of the three countries in North America. Information on Canada was drawn from data provided by Statistics Canada, the country's centralized government-funded statistical agency, as well as information bulletins issued by the Canadian Tourism Commission. Information on Mexico was drawn from a number of official reports prepared by several government agencies. Information on tourism in the United States was assembled primarily from available data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis from their U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Account system. In summary, the present backgrounder reveals that tourism in Canada and the United States has been, and is being, affected by the current economic crisis, and it appears likely that it will be further affected in the near future. In contrast, tourism in Mexico has been affected more directly and to a much greater extent by the swine flu pandemic, exchange rates, and weather conditions than by the economic crisis itself.
Published in Journal of Travel Research, v. 49, n. 1, pp. 5-15, 2010
The Tourism Satellite Account: A Primer
The Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) is a popular method of measuring the direct contributions of tourism consumption to a national economy. Its unique role in quantifying economic contributions of visitors in a country derives from its nature as an account rather than a model and its observance of the principles of national economic accounting. This discussion of TSA concepts, definitions and structure, the five macroeconomic variables produced and the special cases of accounting for travel agencies/tour operators, business travel consumption, and tourism specific durable goods is designed to make the TSA accessible to non economic accountants. Research issues yet to be resolved relate to tourism gross fixed capital formation, tourism collective consumption, and sub national TSAs. Finally, standards distinguishing the TSA from other economic impact methods are recommended.
Published in Annals of Tourism Research, v. 37, n. 1, pp. 136-153, 2010
REQUEST A COPY FROM THE AUTHOR
An Assessment of Visitor Expenditure Methods and Models
There has been a great deal of research devoted to estimating visitor expenditures in countries, regions, cities and other areas, and as related to specific events. Such estimates are essential for producing comprehensive estimates of tourism’s economic benefits in an area. This review of methods employed to estimate visitor expenditures applies definitions of relevant concepts developed by the World Tourism Organization to promote standardization and quality in tourism statistics. Three contexts are identified for visitor expenditure studies: occasion, venue and time frame. Occasion recognizes the visitor expenditure studies that have focused on annual visitor expenditures in a study area, in contrast to those focusing on visitor expenditures associated with a given event. The latter occasion raises a number of issues regarding what comprises qualified visitors and qualified expenditures. Three principles are applied from the literature to assess 12 methods and models. Guidance is provided for selecting valid approaches by occasion.
Assessment of Tourism/Hospitality Journals' Role in Knowledge Transfer: An Exploratory Study
This study is a preliminary assessment of the transfer of knowledge from 13 popular tourism, hospitality and related academic journals to managers, researchers and other practitioners in the U.S. tourism and hospitality industries. It is based on a sample survey of members of two organizations that cover these populations: the Travel and Tourism Research Association and the Travel Industry Association of America. This study finds, among other results, that the two populations differ in their proportions that read any journals and specific journals, that there are preferences for journals that vary by occupation and tourism industry sector, and that relatively little transmission of knowledge is taking place from leading journals to industry practitioners. Recommendations are presented for further research and action.
Assessing the Economic Impacts of Travel and Tourism – Introduction to Travel Economic Impact Estimation
Economic impact, the direct and secondary costs and benefits of travel, and the travel industry are defined. General methods of approaching travel and tourism impact estimation are presented, along with criteria for evaluating alternative approaches. Uses of tourism economic impact studies are also discussed.
Assessing the Economic Impacts of Travel and Tourism – Measuring Economic Benefits
Eight approaches to estimating travel expenditures in an area are explained and evaluated. Sample surveys and respondent recall bias are discussed in detail. Simulation models of economic impact are presented, with the Travel Economic Impact Model evaluated by the criteria established in Chapter (preceding). Measuring secondary benefits is also discussed, including alternative techniques for estimating multipliers.
Assessing the Economic Impacts of Travel and Tourism – Measuring Economic Costs
The relationship of two kinds of incidental costs of tourism, fiscal costs and life quality costs to a community, are discussed. Methods of estimating the direct and secondary fiscal costs are presented, as well as comparing these costs to benefits. The role and method of discounting future costs and benefits is also detailed.
Estimating the Multiplier Effects of Tourism Expenditures on a Local Economy through a Regional Input-Output Model
Tourism benefits regional economies through increased output, labor earnings and employment. Tourism multipliers embody the total increase in output, labor earnings and employment through interindustry linkages in a region as a result of tourism expenditures. The RIMS II regional input-output model was employed to estimate the multiplier effects of visitor expenditures in Washington, D.C. Both normal and ratio multipliers were analyzed, and the latter was found to be a more reliable indicator of total impact. A comparison of multipliers for 37 industries and the tourism sector in the city shows that tourism ranks relatively high in terms of output and labor earnings generated. These findings suggest recommendations for the economic growth and development of Washington, D.C.
World Population and Standard of Living: Implications for International Tourism in the First Decade of the New Millennium
International travel has major implications for the world’s economies. The World Tourism Organization (WTO) has documented that in 1995 (WTO, 1997b, pp. S-ii):
• International tourism receipts had grown 13 percent per year compounded over the prior decade, outgrowing the world’s gross product, merchandise export trade, and trade in services
• International tourism receipts reached 1.42 percent of world gross product
• International tourism receipts and passenger fares comprised 8 percent of the world’s merchandise export trade and one-third of worldwide trade in services
America’s Wake Up Call
In a historic first, the White House Conference on Travel and Tourism convened in Washington, D.C. on October 30 to 31, 1995, focusing the attention of the highest levels of government and business on pressing needs of travel to and within the United States and the industry that serves it.
Improving the World's Tourism Statistics: Recommendations of an International Conference
More than 200 delegates from 90 countries attended a week-long International Conference on Travel and Tourism Statistics in Ottawa, Canada, on June 24-28, 1991. Sponsored by the World Tourism Organization and Tourism Canada, this was the first worldwide gathering to reach agreement on improving the world's tourism marketing and economic impact statistics since government representatives met in Rome in 1963 to establish the first definitions for international tourism.
Books Published
This is a book about forecasting for those interested in the ubiquitous phenomenon of tourism.
DOWNLOAD THE TABLE OF CONTENTS