Department of Economics
THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY

Department
Faculty Page

Frederick L. Joutz, Professor

Research Program on Forecasting, Director

Summary Experience

I have taught graduate, undergraduate level courses in Econometrics, Forecasting Macroeconomics, Money and Banking, and Energy Economics since 1988. I have taught an applied econometrics and research course in GWU’s, Master of Science in Finance since 1997. I have served as a consultant and technical expert to several federal government agencies and private corporations. This work has involved writing research reports, conducting market analyses, developing econometric models and forecasts, providing technical support, and conducting technical workshops and training sessions. The primary focus of my research has been in the areas of economic modeling and forecasting. I have contributed quarterly forecasts of about 25 U.S. macroeconomic variables to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (formerly the ASA/NBER Quarterly Outlook) since 1988 and the Economic Survey International ESI by the CES/fo Institute for Economic Research since 2002. In addition, I have been an associate editor for Energy Economics and the International Journal of Forecasting. I have taught at Oberlin College and worked at Resources for the Future.

Education

1987 - Ph.D. Economics, University of Washington (Thesis Advisor: Charles R. Nelson)

1982 - M.A. Economics, University of British Columbia

1979 - B.A. Individual Studies, International Economics, University of Maryland.

Recent Courses

ECON 121 Money and Banking (Undergraduate)

ECON 277 Lab in Applied Econometrics (Graduate)

There are two versions of the ECON 277 course offered by the Department of Economics. In the fall a macroeconomic and finance - time series modeling course is taught by myself and Dr. Neil Ericsson from the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board. During the spring, Professor David Ribar teaches a course targeted towards microeconomic applications using qualitative dependent variable models and panel data sets. These two classes are often the springboards to successful topic ideas for PhD proposals.

· Selected Publications

· “Relating the Knowledge Production Function to Total Factor Productivity: An Endogenous Growth Puzzle” forthcoming in IMF Staff Papers written with Yasser Abdih 2006

· “An Unobserved Component Model of Asset Pricing Across Financial Markets,” forthcoming in International Review of Financial Analysis, written with Adrian M. Cowan

"Residential Electricity Demand in Taiwan: A Error Correction Approach,", Energy Economics,
written with Pernhille Holtedahl, vol. 26 (2) 2004, pp 201-224.

“Modeling the Yields on Noninvestment Grade Bond Indices: Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Factors” invited paper for Special Issue on Credit Derivatives the International Review of Financial Analysis, written with William F. Maxwell, vol. 11, 2002, pp345-374.

“Factors Affecting the Yield on Noninvestment Grade Bond Yields,” Journal of Empirical Finance, written with Theodore M. Barnhill and William Maxwell, 7 (2000), 57-86
“An Evaluation of Forecasts of the Federal Reserve,” International Journal of Forecasting, written with H. O. Stekler, forthcoming.
“An Evaluation of Federal Reserve Forecasting: Comment,” Journal of Macroeconomics, written with H.O. Stekler, Volume 21, Number 1, Winter 1999.
"Data Revisions and Forecasting,” Applied Economics, written with H.O. Stekler, August, Vol. 30, No. 8 . Received Citation for Excellence for Paper by ANBAR Electronic Intelligence.
“Forecasting CPI Food Prices: An Assessment,” invited paper American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 79, Number 5, 1997.
"Real Wages over the Business Cycle," Eastern Economic Journal, written with Edward N. Gamber, (forthcoming 1997).
"Estimation of Short Run and Long Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, paper written with G.S. Maddala, Robert P. Trost, and Hongyi Li, January, 1997.
"Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Patent Application Filings," Journal of Policy Modeling, with Kay Adams,
Douglas Kim, Gus Mastrogianis, and Robert Trost, September, 1997, vol. 19 no. 5, p491-535.
"Short- and Long-Run Elasticities in U.S. Residential Electricity Demand: A Cointegration Approach," Energy Economics, written with Julian Silk (August, 1997).
"Modeling and Forecasting Municipal Solid Waste Generation in the U.S. Energy Supply," Journal of Forecasting, January, 1997.
"Economic Growth, Energy Prices, and Technological Innovation," Southern Economic Journal written with Commander Thomas Gardner, January, 1996, vol. 62, 3, p653-666.
"An Integrated Bayesian Vector Autoregression and Error Correction Model for Forecasting Electricity Consumption and Prices," in special issue of Journal of Forecasting written with G.S. Maddala and Robert Trost, May, 1995, vol. 14, 3, p287-3 10.
Study Guide for use with Contemporary Money, Banking, and Financial Markets: Theory and Practice written with Jane de Winter to accompany textbook with same name by Michael G. Hadjimichalakis and Karma G. Hadjimichalakis, Richard D. Irwin Inc ., Chicago, 1995.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review. with Edward G. Gamber, December, 1993, vol. 83, 5, p1387-93.
"An Application of Estimating Structural Vector Autoregression Models with Long Run Restrictions," The Journal of Macroeconomics with Edward N. Gamber, September, 1993, vol. 15, 4, p723-745.
"Using Stochastic Simulation to Test the Effect of Different Data Seasonal Adjustment on Forecast Standard Errors of Motor Gasoline Demand," International Journal of Forecasting, with Robert Trost, 1992, volume 8, p219-231.
"Informational Efficiency Tests of Macroeconometric GNP Forecasts from 1976 through 1985" Managerial and Decision Economics, vol. 9, p311-330, December, (1988).

Technical Reports

"Model of U.S. Resident Filings at the European Patent Office," Technical Report (under review) prepared for Office of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with Costas Mastrogianis, August 2001.

"Model of U.S. Entity Filings at the Japan Patent Office," Technical Report (under review) prepared for Office of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with Costas Mastrogianis, August 2001.

"Model of "Other" Country Filings at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office," Technical Report (under review) prepared for Office of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with Costas Mastrogianis, June 2001.

"Forecasting Patent Applications by Technology Center," Technical Report prepared for Office of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with Costas Mastrogianis, December 2000.

“Retail Food Price Forecasting at USDA and ERS: A Description of the Process, Methodology, and
Performance from 1984 to 1997,” (with Robert Trost, Mark Denbaly, Charles Hallahan, and Annette Clauson),
USDA Technical Bulletin 1885, May 2000.

“U.S. Population Demographics and Recreational Preferences Study,” (with Aimee Dimmerman) National Park
Service, U.S. Department of the Interior, December, 1998.

"Forecasting Seven Components of the Food CPI" (with Robert Trost and Mark Denbaly), USDA Technical
Report, November, 1996.

"Comparison of Bayesian VAR and Unrestricted VAR Forecasting Models of Motor Gasoline and Distillate
Fuel Prices and Quantities," Short Term Energy Outlook: Supplement, 1992 Energy Information
Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. with Robert Trost.

"Getting Forecast Standard Errors of Motor Gasoline Demand with Stochastic Simulation," Short Term Energy
Outlook: Supplement, 1991 Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C.
with Robert Trost.

"Biomass Fuel Supply: A Methodology for Determining Marginal Costs", Washington State Energy Office,
Olympia. Technical Report, December 1985.

"Industrial Energy Substitution: Econometric Analysis of U.S. Data, 1958-1974", Interim Report, Electric
Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. December 1981 with M. Hazilla and R. Kopp.

Working Papers

“Evidence on the Role of Oil Prices on Venezuela’s Economic Performance,” written with Amany El-Anshasy and Michael D. Bradley, prepared for the 25^th North American Conference of the U.S. Energy Economics Association, Denver, CO. September, 2005.

“An Evaluation of the Forecasts of the Federal Reserve: A Pooled Approach,” written with Michael P. Clements and Herman Stekler. October 2005.

"The Stochastic Nature and Determinants of Credit Spreads," written with Bill Maxwell and Sattar A. Mansi, May 2001.

Research

Currently, I am working on a sponsored collaborative research project entitled, "Implications of Climate Change in Regional Air Pollution, Health Effects, and Energy Consumption Behavior." The research is being performed with Johns Hopkins' Professors Hugh Ellis and Ben Hobbs from the Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering and Dr. Jonathon Patz from the Bloomberg School of Public Health. We received a three year $1.5 million grant from the National Center for Environmental Research at the US EPA. My role in the project is to develop short-run and long-run models for electricity demand.

1983-1984 Alfred Sloan Natural Resources Grant four quarters.
1990 Junior Scholar Incentive Award, The George Washington University.
1993 PRIDE Teaching Award, The George Washington University.
1993 Best Paper Award, Federal Forecasters Conference
1998 Citation for Excellence for Paper “Data Revisions and Forecasting” by ANBAR Electronic Intelligence
1998 National Park Service Research Grant - “U.S. Population Demographics and Recreational Preferences Study,” (co-authored with Aimee Dimmerman)

Administrative Responsibilities (to be updated)

Department

Computer Committee chair,
Comprehensive Exam Review Committees - macroeconomics, monetary economics, econometrics, and Elliot School Development Economics program.

University Service

Information Technology Advisory Council and Research Committee
Vice President's University Committee on Research
Freshman Advising Workshop

Previous Positions

Member, Board of Directors, Wyoming Oil and Gas Corporation (WYOG) from 2001-03.

Economist and Member, Board of Directors, Flight Resources Inc., from 1988 to 1991.

Visiting Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Oberlin College, 1987-1988.

Economic Analyst-Intern, Seattle City Light (municipal electric utility), 1983-86.

Research Assistant, Resources for the Future, 1980-1981.

Memberships

Associate Editor, International Journal of Forecasting (2000-2003)

Book Co-Editor, International Journal of Forecasting (1999-2003)

Associate Editor, Energy Economics (2002-2004)

American Economic Association

International Energy Economists Association

Council Member, International Energy Economists Association, National Capital Chapter (2000-present)

International Institute for Forecasters

Federal Forecasters Association

Volunteer

Assistant Soccer Coach, Montgomery Soccer Inc (MSI), 2002-2005

Mentor, Robotics Club, Tilden Middle School and Walter Johnson High School, 1999-2004

Baseball Coach, Bethesda Chevy Chase (BCC), 1995-1999

Apherisis and Blood donor

Contact information

Department of Economics
George Washington University
1922 F Street, NW

Washington, DC 20052

Office: Old Main Hall, #215

Phone: (202) 994-4899, Fax: (202) 994-6147
Hours: Tuesdays and Thursdays 11:00am-12:15pm

Email: bmark@gwu.edu

To return to the George Washington University home page.
To return to the Department of Economics home page.

Frederick L. Joutz 's Department home page / comments to bmark@gwu.edu / revised March 1, 2004

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this page are those of the page author. The contents of this page have not been reviewed or approved by The George Washington University.