Fred Joutz is a Professor of Economics and Co-director of the Research Program on Forecasting at the George Washington University. His research focuses on macroeconomic and energy econometric modeling and forecasting. He contributes quarterly macroeconomic forecasts to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Economic Survey International ESI by the CES/Ifo Institute for Economic Research. He has served as a consultant and technical expert to Energy Information Administration, the IMF, the UAE, Uzbekistan, the American Gas Association, New England Power Pool, Consumers Energy, the U.S. and European Patent Offices, and other private corporations and government agencies. In addition, he has been a Research Scholar at the IMF. This work has involved writing research reports, developing econometric models and forecasting models, providing technical support, and conducting technical workshops and training sessions. It has included work on EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), Annual Energy Outlook (AEO and NEMS), and International Energy Outlook (IEO). He is a Senior Fellow of the US Association of Energy Economics. He has been an associate editor for Energy Economics and the International Journal of Forecasting. Previously he was a visiting professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, a visiting assistant professor at Oberlin College and worked at Resources for the Future.
My research focuses on macroeconomic and energy econometric modeling and forecasting. I contribute quarterly macroeconomic forecasts to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Economic Survey International ESI by the CES/Ifo Institute for Economic Research. I have conducted research on energy modeling and forecasting from the local utility level to the international level. The latter has included work on Canada, Venezuela, Norway/Central Europe, Nigeria, UAE, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Singapore, Thailand, China, Taiwan, and tanker rates and ownership.
There are three themes to my research agenda. The first two plays to my comparative advantage and third is one that will be accomplished in a more multidisciplinary environment.
The first theme involves developing a quantitative approach to energy security for individual countries and internationally. I approach the multiple issues surrounding energy from an economist's perspective. This begins with attempting to measure energy security directly or through proxies. Then use the measures to analyze the opportunity costs from consumption and production patterns over time. I attach a recent paper in the area and plenary talk at the US Energy Economics Association annual conference. The status of this research is that is still in phase of building a global database which can be maintained. The work has been primarily conducted with Prakash Loungani a Senior Advisor in the IMF Research Department and Dr. Gail Cohen in the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Senate. At present we have a database going back to 1980 on fossil use and sources of supply for OECD countries. We have work to do constructing infrastructure security measures. In edition we have begun building the database for non-OECD countries. The objective is to have energy security measures for net energy consumers and net energy suppliers.
The second theme involves modeling and forecasting macroeconometric-energy relationships and energy markets in emerging economies. This supports and aids in quantifying the empirical approach to energy security. In addition, it complements the policy analysis applications. The energy security measures can be refined and used in light of analyzing the response to energy shocks on macroeconomic performance in the short run and on economic growth. I have three active projects related to Asia and the Middle East.
The most developed research involves work with a former PhD student, Poonpat Leesombatpiboon. He is currently a Senior Policy and Planning Analyst in the Ministry of Energy for Thailand. We have three projects one of which is complete, the other two close to submission for journals. The first is a paper on energy consumption by sector published in a special edition of Energy Economics on Southeast Asian Energy Issues. The second looks at the importance of energy (oil) in the short-run and long-run performance of the macroeconomy of Thailand. The final paper uses the empirical results from the earlier research to evaluate the economic welfare effects of a Strategic Petroleum Reserve for Thailand. We expect to continue working together on future energy economic issues for Thailand and the region.
I have been doing research on Central Asia energy and macroeconomic issues the past few years with visiting researchers from Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan and a PhD student on Kazakhstan. The most important research is with a current Fulbright Fellow I am hosting from the Institute for Economic Development and Central Bank. We are building a macroeconometric model for forecasting and policy analysis. The global oil market, transportation and geopolitical factors help explain the past and drive the future of these economies.
Last summer, I finally had an opportunity to visit the Middle East. I gave training course on macroeconometric modeling and forecasting for staff in the UAE Ministry of Presidential Affairs. At the end we built a small model of the economy. I have been invited back to conduct joint research. In addition I am an international faculty advisor for the UAE University Doctors of Business Administration program.
Select Publications   Refereed Articles in Books   Articles in Conference Proceedings   Technical Reports
Books   Book Reviews   Papers Under Submission   Working Papers
- "Measuring energy security: Trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies," Gail Cohen, Fred Joutz and Prakash Loungani, Energy Policy 39 (2011) 4860-4869.
- "Inflation Illusion or No Illusion: What Did Pre- and Post-War Data Say?" (with C. D. Wei), Applied Financial Economics, 2011, 21, pp. 1599-1603.
- "Energy Security: Depend, but Diversify," Gail Cohen, Fred Joutz and Prakash Loungani, Energy Dialogue, April 2011.
- "Sectoral demand for petroleum in Thailand," with Poonpat Leesombatpiboon, Energy Economics Volume 32, Supplement 1, September 2010, Pages S15-S25, Special Issue on Asian Energy in the Context of Growing Security and Environmental Concerns
- "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?" with Tara Sinclair and H.O. Stekler, Economics Letters 108 (2010), pp. 28-32.
- "Methods for identifying emerging General Purpose Technologies: A case study of nanotechnologies", written with Laura Schultz, in Scientometrics. Volume 85, Number 1, October 2010, 155-170.
- "Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed Forecasts," written with Tara Sinclair and H.O. Stekler, forthcoming Economics Letters.
- "Interview with Herman Stekler," International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 26, (2010) pages 195-203.
- "Exploring the link between oil prices and tanker rates," Maritime Policy & Management, written with Angela Poulakidas, Volume 36, Issue 3 June 2009 , pages 215 - 233
- Chen, Y., B.F. Hobbs, J.H. Ellis, C. Crowley, and F. Joutz "Impacts of Climate Change on Power Sector NOx Emissions: A Long Run Analysis of the Mid-Atlantic Region". Environmental Science & Technology. (2008).
- "What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?," CESifo Economic Studies, written with Stephan Danninger, December 2008; 54: 681 - 714.
- "An Evaluation of the Forecasts of the Federal Reserve: A Pooled Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, written with Michael P. Clements and Herman O. Stekler, (22) 2007, pp121-136.
- "Relating the Knowledge Production Function to Total Factor Productivity: An Endogenous Growth Puzzle," IMF Staff Papers written with Yasser Abdih, July, 53 (2006), 2, S.242-271, 2006.
- "An Unobserved Component Model of Asset Pricing Across Financial Markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, written with Adrian M. Cowan, 15 (2006), 1, S. 86-107
- "Residential Electricity Demand in Taiwan: A Error Correction Approach," Energy Economics, written with Pernhille Holtedahl, vol. 26 (2) 2004, pp 201-224.
- "Modeling the Yields on Noninvestment Grade Bond Indices: Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Factors" invited paper for Special Issue on Credit Derivatives the International Review of Financial Analysis, written with William F. Maxwell, vol. 11, 2002, pp345-374.
- "Factors Affecting the Yield on Noninvestment Grade Bond Yields," Journal of Empirical Finance, written with Theodore M. Barnhill and William Maxwell, 7 (2000), pp 57-86.
- "An Evaluation of Forecasts of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, written with H. O. Stekler, vol. 16, 2001 pp 17-39.
- "An Evaluation of Federal Reserve Forecasting: Comment," Journal of Macroeconomics, written with H.O. Stekler, Volume 21, Number 1, Winter 1999.
- "Data Revisions and Forecasting," Applied Economics, written with H.O. Stekler, August 1998, Vol. 30, No. 8 . Received Citation for Excellence for Paper by ANBAR Electronic Intelligence.
- "Forecasting CPI Food Prices: An Assessment," invited paper American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 79, Number 5, 1997.
- "Real Wages over the Business Cycle," Eastern Economic Journal, written with Edward N. Gamber, (September, 1997).
- "Short- and Long-Run Elasticities in U.S. Residential Electricity Demand: A Cointegration Approach," Energy Economics, written with Julian Silk (August 1997).
- "Estimation of Short Run and Long Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators," written with Hongyi Li, G. S. Maddala and Robert Trost, Journal of Business and Economics Statistics, Vol. 15, No. 1, January, 1997.
- "Modeling and Forecasting Municipal Solid Waste Generation in the U.S. Energy Supply," Journal of Forecasting, January, 1997,pp 477-494.
- "Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Patent Application Filings," Journal of Policy Modeling, written with Kay Adams, Douglas Kim, Gus Mastrogianis, and Robert Trost, September, 1997, vol. 19 no. 5, p491-535.
- "Estimation des elasticities de court et de long termes de la demande d'electricite sur donnees de panel a partir d'estimateurs a retrecisseur" written with Hongyi Li , G. S. Maddala, and Robert Trost, Economie & Prevision, numero 126, 5/Annee 1996.
- "Bayesian Time Series Forecasting Models of Quarterly Residential Gas Demand for the District of Columbia," American Gas Association: Forecasting Review, written with Robert Trost and Donald Fouts, March, 1996, vol. 5, p23-40.
- "Economic Growth, Energy Prices, and Technological Innovation," Southern Economic Journal, written with Commander Thomas Gardner, January, 1996, vol. 62, 3, p653-666.
- "An Integrated Bayesian Vector Autoregression and Error Correction Model for Forecasting Electricity Consumption and Prices," in special issue of Journal of Forecasting, written with G.S. Maddala and Robert Trost, May, 1995, vol. 14, 3, p287-310.
- "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, written with Edward G. Gamber, December, 1993, vol. 83, 5, p1387-93.
- "An Application of Estimating Structural Vector Autoregression Models with Long Run Restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics written with Edward N. Gamber, September, 1993, vol. 15, 4, p723-745.
- "Using Stochastic Simulation to Test the Effect of Different Data Seasonal Adjustment on Forecast Standard Errors of Motor Gasoline Demand," International Journal of Forecasting, written with Robert Trost, 1992, volume 8, p219-231.
- "Biomass Fuel Supply: A Methodology for Determining Marginal Costs," Bioresource Technology, vol. 32, 1991, Elsevier Applied Sciences Publishers Ltd, p179-183.
- "Informational Efficiency Tests of Macroeconometric GNP Forecasts from 1976 through 1985", Managerial and Decision Economics, vol. 9, p311 330, December, (1988).
- "Estimation of Short Run and Long Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators" written with Hongyi Li, G. S. Maddala and Robert Trost, in Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Panel Data: Volume I, edited by Badi H. Baltagi, The International Library of Critical Writings Series, Edgar Elgar Publisher, 2003.
- "Modeling the Yields on Noninvestment Grade Bonds," High Yield Bonds: Market Structure, Portfolio Management, and Credit Risk Modeling, edited by Theodore M. Barnhill, William Maxwell, and Mark R. Shenkman published by McGraw-Hill Company (forthcoming 1999).
- Measuring Energy Security: Trends in the Diversification of Oil and Natural Gas Supplies, Gail Cohen, Fred Joutz and Prakash Loungani, IMF Working Paper 11/39, February 2011.
- "Estimating Regional Short-run and Long-run Price Elasticities of Residential Natural Gas Demand in the U.S.," written with Robert P Trost, David Shin, and Bruce McDowell, 28th Annual North American Conference,USAEE/IAEE New Orleans, LA, December 2008.
- "The Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices," written with Jose Villar, Prepared for the 26th Annual North American Conference of the USAEE/IAEE, Denver September 2006.
- "The Relationship between Oil Markets and Shipping Tanker Rates under the Impact of the Sharp Rise in Oil Prices," Proceedings of the International Association of Maritime Economists Conference, Melbourne, Australia, written with Angela Poulakidas, July 2006.
- "Evidence on the Role of Oil Prices in Venezuela's Economic Performance: 1950-2001," written with Amany El-Anshasy, Michael D. Bradley, Prepared for the 25th Annual North American Conference of the USAEE/IAEE, Denver September 18-21, 2005
- "Regional Short-term Electricity Consumption Models," written with David Costello Prepared for 25th Annual North American Conference of the USAEE/IAEE, Denver September 18-21, 2005.
- "Hourly Electricity Loads: Temperature Elasticities and Climate Change" written with Christian Crowley, presented at North American Energy Economists Association Meeting, Mexico City, Mexico, October 2003
- "Disability Benefit Applications, Economic Trends, and Projections," written with Mikki D. Waid Federal Forecasters Conference Proceedings, October 2003.
- "Seasonality and Weather Effects on Electricity Loads: Modeling and Forecasting," written with Christian Crowley, at MetrixND Forecasters User Conference Proceedings, September 23-25, 2002, San Diego, CA
- "Residential Electricity Demand in Taiwan," 21st North American Conference Proceedings of the International Energy Economics Association, October 1999, written with Pernille Holtedahl.
- "Small Area Residential Electricity Demand Modeling: A Cointegration Approach,"21st North American Conference Proceedings of the International Energy Economics Association, October 1999, written with Anna Ter-Martirosyan and Christopher Tuttle.
- "The Impact of Motor Gasoline Taxes on Consumption and Revenues," 18th Annual North American Conference Proceedings of the International Energy Economics Association, October 1996, written with Robert Trost.
- "Economic Growth, Energy Prices, and Technological Innovation," Economic Seminar Series, 15th Annual North American Conference Proceedings of the International Energy Economists Association, October 10-12, 1993, Seattle, WA, and November, 1993
- "Modeling and Forecasting Municipal Solid Waste Generation in the U.S. Energy Supply," 15th Annual North American Conference of the International Energy Economists Association, November 6-9, 1994, Dallas, TX.
- "Short Run Forecasts and Long Run Dynamics: A Case Study Using Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices," Fifth Annual Federal Forecasters Conference and Proceedings, September 8, 1993, Washington, D.C. written with Harry Vroomen.
- "Combining Short Run and Long Run Forecasts: Modeling the Demand for Residential and Industrial Electricity Using Seasonal Cointegration Techniques to Produce Consistent Forecasts," 14th Annual North American Conference Proceedings, International Association for Energy Economics, October 26-28, 1992, New Orleans, LA.
- "Combining Short Run and Long Run Forecasts: Modeling the Demand for Residential Electricity Using Seasonal Cointegration Techniques to Produce Consistent Forecasts," Fifth Annual Federal Forecasters Conference Papers and Proceedings, September 15th 1992, Washington, D.C.
- "Developments in Forecasting: A Word of Caution for the 1990's," Fifth Annual Federal Forecasters Conference Papers and Proceedings, September 15th, 1992, Washington, D.C.
- "What Explains the Growth in German Exports?" Economics Monitor, Unicredit Bank of Italy, written with Stephan Danninger, June 2007.
- "Price Elasticity Study - An Economic Analysis of Consumer Response to Natural Gas Prices," American Gas Association Report, written with Robert Trost, March 2007.
- "Regional Electricity Demand Model," documentation for the U.S. Energy Information Administration Short Term Energy Outlook Model, August 2005.
- "Model of U.S. Resident Filings at the European Patent Office," Technical Report prepared for Office of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with Costas Mastrogianis, August 2001.
- "Model of U.S. Resident Filings at the European Patent Office," Technical Report (under review) prepared for Office of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with Costas Mastrogianis, August 2001.
- "Model of U.S. Entity Filings at the Japan Patent Office," Technical Report (under review) prepared for Office of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with Costas Mastrogianis, August 2001.
- "Model of "Other" Country Filings at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office," Technical Report (under review) prepared for Office of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with Costas Mastrogianis, June 2001.
- "Forecasting Patent Applications by Technology Center," Technical Report prepared for Office of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with Costas Mastrogianis, December 2000.
- "Retail Food Price Forecasting at USDA and ERS: A Description of the Process, Methodology, and Performance from 1984 to 1997," (with Robert Trost, Mark Denbaly, Charles Hallahan, and Annette Clauson), USDA Technical Bulletin 1885, May 2000.
- "U.S. Population Demographics and Recreational Preferences Study," (with Aimee Dimmerman) National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior, December, 1998.
- "Forecasting Seven Components of the Food CPI" (with Robert Trost and Mark Denbaly), USDA Technical Report, November, 1996.
- "Comparison of Bayesian VAR and Unrestricted VAR Forecasting Models of Motor Gasoline and Distillate Fuel Prices and Quantities," Short Term Energy Outlook: Supplement, 1992 Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. with Robert Trost.
- "Getting Forecast Standard Errors of Motor Gasoline Demand with Stochastic Simulation," Short Term Energy Outlook: Supplement, 1991 Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. with Robert Trost.
- "Biomass Fuel Supply: A Methodology for Determining Marginal Costs", Washington State Energy Office, Olympia. Technical Report, December 1985.
- "Industrial Energy Substitution: Econometric Analysis of U.S. Data, 1958-1974", Interim Report, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. December 1981 with M. Hazilla and R. Kopp.
- Study Guide for use with Contemporary Money, Banking, and Financial Markets: Theory and Practice, written with Jane de Winter to accompany textbook with same name by Michael G. Hadjimichalakis and Karma G. Hadjimichalakis, Richard D. Irwin Inc., Chicago, 1995.
- Book Review for, The International Journal of Forecasting, 20/20 Foresight Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World, by Hugh Courtney, Harvard Business School Press, 2002.
- Book Review for The International Journal of Forecasting, Elements of Forecasting, written by Francis V. Diebold, SouthWestern Publishing Co. 1998.
- Book Review for, The International Journal of Forecasting, Testing Macroeconometric Models, written by Ray Fair, Harvard University Press, 1997.
- Estimating Regional Short-run and Long-run Price Elasticities of Residential Natural Gas Demand in the U.S." submitted to the Energy Policy, written with Robert P. Trost, David Shin, and Bruce McDowell, June 2010.
- "Global Energy Outlook, Oil Prices, and Quantifying Energy Vulnerability," invited paper and forthcoming in Journal of Tashkent State Technology University.
- "Fiscal and Political Instability and the Growth Nexus in Developing Countries: An Application to Nigeria," written with Issouf Samake under review at IMF Working Paper Series, April 2009.
- "Oil Prices, Fiscal Policy, and Venezuela's Economic Growth," written with Amany El-Anshasy, and Michael D. Bradley, received a revise and resubmit from the Energy Journal.
- "The Impact of Public Capital, Human Capital, and Technology on Aggregate Output," written with Yasser Abdih, submitted to Journal of Policy Modeling, May 2010.
- "Modeling Hourly Electricity Loads in the PJM," for special issue of Journal of Energy Markets.
- "Modelling and Forecasting Residential Electricity Consumption in the U.S. Mountain Region," written with Jason B. Jorgensen, January 2012.
- "The Economics of Solar Energy in the NEMS Model," with Mark Hutson, Arun Malik and Robert Trost.
- "Modeling Monthly Norwegian Electricity Consumption Model," with Anna Marte, Stein Erik Fleten, and Sjur Westgaard, November, 2009.
- Yasser Abdih and Frederick Joutz (2008) "The Impact of Public Capital, Human Capital, and Knowledge on Aggregate Output," September, IMF Working Paper No. 08/218
- "A Macroeconometric Model for Uzbekistan: Income and the Demand for Money," written with Akmal Abdurazakov May 2008.
- "Extreme Value Estimators: Their Long Memory Feature and Forecasting Performances in U.S. Stock Indexes," with Yongjae Kwon.
- "Sectoral Demand for Energy by Fuel Type in Thailand," written with Poonpat Leesombatpiboon. Paper is being prepared for the 32nd Annual IAEE Conference on Energy, Economy, and the Environment: the Global View, San Francisco, June 2009.
- "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand in the Philippines," Written with Kotaro Ishi. Paper is being prepared for the 32nd Annual IAEE Conference on Energy, Economy, and the Environment: the Global View, San Francisco, June 2009.
- "Income Inequality, Trade, Capital, and Education: A Long-run Relationship," written with Jeremy Schwartz, March 1, 2007.
- "The Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices," written with Jose Villar, U.S. Energy Information Administration, October 2006.
- "Natural Gas Prices, Price Volatility, Industrial Natural Gas Consumption, and Industrial Activity," written with David Costello and Poonpat Leesombpatiboon, April 2006, submitted to Energy Economics.
- "Relating the Knowledge Production Function to Total Factor Productivity: An Endogenous Growth Puzzle" Yasser Abdih and Frederick Joutz April 1, 2005, IMF Working Paper No. 05/74
- "The Yield Curve Slope and Monetary Policy Innovations," with Edward N. Gamber, Institute for Advanced Studies Economics Series #171, Vienna, Austria, May 2005.
- "Hourly Electricity Loads: Temperature Elasticities and Climate Change" with Christian Crowley, presented at North American Energy Economists Association Meeting, Mexico City, Mexico, October 2003.
- "The Energy Price - GDP Relationship: World Oil Market Dynamics, An Alternative Macroeconomic Framework, and the Historical Evidence," Prepared for the Allied Social Sciences Meeting January 3-6, 2004 in San Diego CA, IAEE session The Value of and Role for Government Strategic Inventories in Petroleum Markets.
- "Aggregate vs. Bottom-Up Models: Forecasting Monthly Electricity Consumption in Italy," Luca Pappalardo. February 2004.
- "Federal Funds Target and Market Expectations Since 1991," with William Treacy, November 2003.
- "An Investigation of the Source of Bias Contained in Consensus Forecasts," Edward. N. Gamber
- "Modeling and Forecasting Demand for Highway Diesel Fuel and Prices," written with Julian Silk, 2001.
- ECON 12 Principles of Macroeconomics
- ECON 123 Introduction to Econometrics
- ECON 198 ProSeminar in Economics
- ECON 278 Economic Forecasting
- ECON 295 Special Topics: Forecasting
- ECON 398 Readings and Research: Energy Economics
- FIN 271 Applied Finance
- FIN 272 Applied Finance in Global Markets
- IAFF 210 Introduction to Econometrics for Elliot School Students
- 2009 Proposal for University Seminar Proposal on Forecasting - $2,500 received.
- The Economics of Solar Electricity Generation, Request for Proposals (IASE-2008-1) Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, October 2008, with Frederick L. Joutz, Arun Malik, and Robert P. Trost Department of Economics (Budget $40K awarded)
- A Literature Survey on the Economics of Solar Energy Request for Proposals (IASE-2008-1) Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, October 2008, with Frederick L. Joutz, Robert P. Trost and Anthony Yezer Department of Economics, and Lance J. Hoffman Department of Computer Science, (proposal $40K not awarded)
- Junior Faculty Development Program (JFDP) to sponsor visiting scholars from former Soviet republics and the Balkans. Sponsor:The Department of State Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs. 2007 and 2008.
- Collaborative research project entitled, "Implications of Climate Change in Regional Air Pollution, Health Effects, and Energy Consumption Behavior." The research was performed with Johns Hopkins' Professors Hugh Ellis and Ben Hobbs from the Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering and Dr. Jonathon Patz from the Bloomberg School of Public Health. We received a three year $1.5 million grant from the National Center for Environmental Research at the US EPA. My role in the project was to develop short-run and long-run models for electricity demand. 2002-2004.
- Federal Forecasters Consortium. Organizing annual conference of forecasters in the federal government and selection committee of Best Paper(s) from the conference. Award is approximately $2,500 - $3,500 per conference. 2003-present
- "Preemptive Strategies for the Assessment and Management of Financial System Risk Levels in Latin American Countries," Globalization Research with Professor Ted Barnhill and the Financial Markets Research Institute, Institute for Brazilian Business and Public Management, and Center for Real Estate and Urban Analysis (Chartered GW Center/ Institute) 2003 Grant award $47,500.
- "Modeling and forecasting patent propensities," The research involved developing econometric models and forecasting modeling of patent activity both domestic and international. This included serving and participating as an Economic and Forecasting Expert to U.S. delegation at Trilateral Patent Statistics Group meetings in the U.S., the European Patent Office in Munich, Germany and the World Intellectual Property Office in Geneva, Switzerland.1992-2005. Grant awards varied by year.
- European Patent Office Research Program - Modeling and Forecasting Patent Filings at the National Level 2002-03,Grant Award $30,000.
- National Park Service Research Grant - "U.S. Population Demographics and Recreational Preferences Study," co-authored with Aimee Dimmerman). 1998. Grant award $5,000.
Fellowships and Awards
- 1983-1984 Alfred Sloan Natural Resources Grant four quarters.
- 1990 Junior Scholar Incentive Award, The George Washington University.
- 1993 PRIDE Teaching Award, The George Washington University.
- 1993 Best Paper Award, Federal Forecasters Conference
- 1998 Citation for Excellence for Paper "Data Revisions and Forecasting" by ANBAR Electronic Intelligence
- 1998 National Park Service Research Grant - "U.S. Population Demographics and Recreational Preferences Study," (co-authored with Aimee Dimmerman)
- 2001-04 STAR Research Award from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
- 2002-03 European Patent Office Research Program - Modeling and Forecasting Patent Filings at the National Level
- 2003-04 George Washington University Institute for Public Policy, Policy Research Scholar Competition , Title of Proposal: "Combining Short-Run Energy and Macroeconometric Models for Forecasting Purposes"
- 2009 Senior Fellow, United States Energy Economics Association
- Director, Research Program on Forecasting
- Chair Search Committee
- PhD Committee II
- Chair, Department Computer Committee
- Center for Economic Research, Board Member
- Chair, Funger 636 Computer Laboratory Committee
- Member, Senior Macroeconomics Search Committee
- Member, Junior Macroeconomics Search Committee
- Comprehensive Exam Review Committees - macroeconomics, monetary economics, econometrics, and Elliot School Development Economics program
- B.A. Advising Committee 1988-1991
- PhD Committee
- President's Innovation Task Force - Business Process Group
- Chair, Research and Instructional Technology Committee, 2006-08
- Member, Advisory Council on Research 03-05
- Member, Senate Research Committee 03-05
- Member, Instructional Technology Advisory Committee, 95-99
- Chair, Research and Instructional Technology SubCommittee, 97-00
- Member, Research and Instructional Technology SubCommittee, 95-96,and 96-97
- Member, Classroom Technology Committee, 97-present
- University Computational Sciences Program Committee 96-97
- Vice President's University Committee on Research 97
- Freshman Advising Workshop 95-96 and 96-97
- Colonial Inauguration 95, 96, 97, and 2006
- Vice President's Advisory Council on Academic Computing (ACAC) 90-95
- ACAC subcommittees on Classrooms, Databases, Computers in the classroom
- Faculty Network Admissions Program 91-99
- Member, Board of Directors, Wyoming Oil and Gas Corporation (WYOG) from 2001-03.
- Economist and Member, Board of Directors, Flight Resources Inc., from 1988 to 1991.
- Visiting Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Oberlin College, 1987-1988.
- Economic Analyst-Intern, Seattle City Light (municipal electric utility), 1983-86.
- Research Assistant, Resources for the Future, 1980-1981.
- US Energy Economics Association, Vice President for Conferences (2012)
- US Energy Economics Association, Vice President for Academic Affairs (2009-2010)
- Associate Editor, International Journal of Forecasting (2000-2003)
- Book Co-Editor, International Journal of Forecasting (1999-2003)
- Associate Editor, Energy Economics (2002-2004)
- American Economic Association
- Western Economic Association
- International Energy Economists Association
- Council Member, International Energy Economists Association, National Capital Chapter (2000-present)
- International Institute for Forecasters
- Federal Forecasters Association
American Economic Review, The Journal of Political Economy, Economic Inquiry, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and control, Applied Economics, International Journal of Forecasting, The Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Financial Econometrics, Economic Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Energy Economics, Energy Journal, Energy Policy, Eastern Economic Journal, Oxford Journal of Business and Statistics, Quarterly Journal of Economics and Business, Journal of Economic Education, The American Economist, NSF review, Bioresources Technology.
- Canoeing and Fishing
- Stroke & Turn Judge, Timer - Montgomery Swim League, Potomac Valley Swimming
- MSI Assistant Soccer Coach (2002-2009)
- BCC Little League Baseball Coach (1996-1988)
- Robotics Team Mentor, Tilden Middle School and Walter Johnson High School (1998-2006)
- Red Cross Blood and Pheresis Donor
- Council Advisory Committee on Scouting for Handicapped, National Capital Area Council of Boy Scouts. 1989-91.
- Limited German and French
Ph.D. Dissertations - Economics
|Poonpat Leespoonpatiboom||Thailand's Energy Security: Strategic Petroleum Reserve and its Economic Impacts||Chair||2010|
|Anastasia Guschina||Three Essays on the Evolution of Government Domestic Debt in the Emerging Market Countries||Member||2009|
|Ishi Kotaro||Three Essays in Time Series Macroeconometrics||Chair||2009|
|Cigdem Akim||Three Essays in Interational Macroeconomics||Chair||2009|
|Yongjae Kwon||Extreme Value Estimator: Their Long-Memory Feature and Forecasting Performances in US Stock Indeces||Member||2009|
|Issoufe Samake||Empirical Investigations of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: An Application to Nigeria||Co-Chair||2008|
|Laura I Schultz||Measuring the Returns to National R&D: Public and Private||Co-Chair||2007|
|Elaine Frey||Technology Diffusion and Environmental Regulation: Evidence from Electric Utilities under the Clean Air Act||Member||2007|
|Amany El-Anshasy||Oil Prices, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Growth in Oil Exporting Countries||Member||2006|
|Christian Crowley||Three Essays in Natural Resource Economics and the Environment||Co-Chair||2005|
|Di Guo||Modeling Natural Gas Demand||Member||2005|
|Thomas Gardner||Congressional Voting and Energy Research and Development||Chair||2004|
|Edna Villa||Modeling Output and Inflation in the Philippines: An Application of VAR Modeling with contemporaneous and Long-Run Restrictions||Chair||2003|
|William Treacy||The Adjustment of Markets and Expectations to Monetary Policy Actions and Other Significant Information Events||Chair||2002|
|Yasser Abdih||A Time Series Approach To Modeling Economic Growth||Chair||2003|
|Jaime Velasquez||Exports, Real Exchange Rate Movements in Mexico: An Error Correction Approach||Chair||2002|
|Nellie Lezcayo-Anderson||Money Demand: El Salvador||Chair||2000|
|Elif Akbostanci Ozkazanc||An Error Correction Model for Exchange Rates with Currency Substitution: Canadian Dollar-U.S. Dollar Case||Chair||1998|
|Harry Vroomen||Seasonality, Unit Roots, and Commodity Prices||Chair||1995|
|Chia-Hsin Hu||Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Taiwan||Co-Chair||2002|
|Charolambros Tsangarides||A Bayesian Approach to Analyzing Economic Growth and Poverty||Co-Chair||2003|
|Leonard Loebach||Forecasting with a Stochastic Growth Model||Co-Chair||2000|
|Subash Sriram||Demand for M2 in Malaysia||Co-Chair||1998|
|James Hrubovcak||Farm Land Values and US Monetary Policy||Co-Chair||1995|
|Abdu Sarre||Bank Market Structure, Financial Repression, and Economic Development||Member||2004|
|Peter Kunzel||Market Inefficiencies in the Real Estate Market: Implications for Price Dynamics||Member||2004|
|Javier Meseguer (AU student)||GARCH Analysis from a Bayesian Perspective||Member||2004|
|Jino Choi||Price Elasticities of Public-Sector Electricity Demand: The Case of U.S. Navy Bases||Member||2002|
|Russell Tucker||Strategic Bidding and Market Power in Restructured Electricity Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the PJM Energy Market||Member||2001|
|Valerie Reppelin||Trade and Environmental Policy: An Analysis of the Technology Effect||Member||1999|
|Elizabeth Pittman||R&D Investment, Financing, Firm Heterogeneity and Tax Policy: An Examination of the U.S. Research and Experimentation Tax Credit||Member||1998|
|Scott Anderson||Financial Market Volatility and Economic Growth: A Non-Linear Approach||Member||1999|
|Boem Chol Cin||Monetary Policy Linkages and the Korean Economy||Member||1997|
|Jeffery Paulin||Measurement Error in Consumption and Income||Member||1998|
|Paul McCardle||Energy Markets and Hysteresis||Member||1997|
|Andreas Escalante (AU student)||Elasticities of Substitution in a Bayesian Framework||Member||1997|
|Juan-Carlos Guevara||Speculative Bubbles in Real Estate Prices||Member||1996|
|Amy Henderson||Non-Linear Models of Exchange Rate Determination||Member||1995|
|Yoon Heo||Government Subsidies and Economic Growth in Korea||Member||1994|
|Richard Brown||Bank Market Structure and Risk Aversion||Member||1994|
|Jose Almeida||A Monetary History of Central Banking in Brazil||Member||1991|
|Ken Borghese||Essays on Consumption Theory||Member||1991|
|Seth Greenblatt||Computational Efficiency and Econometrics||Member||1991|
|Naif Al-Moutari||Structural VAR Models of Oil Exporting Countries||Member||1991|
Ph.D. Dissertations - Finance
|Lynne Kelly||Two Essays in International Research Finance||Member||2004|
|Shang-Mei Lee||Essays on Consumption and Equities||Member||2002|
|Mohammed Ihab Kira||The Equity Premium Puzzles||Member||2002|
|Adrian Cowan||Essays on Asset Pricing||Co-Chair||2000|
|Raed Al'Gohail||Essays on CAPM: The Fama Approach||Member||1999|
|William Maxwell||Essays on Credit Spreads and Non-Investment Grade Bonds||Co-Chair||1998|
|Anthony Richards||Essays on Soveriegn Debt Pricing||Member||1998|
|Adrian Michelle Cowan||Conditional Volatility Modeling in Finance||Chair||1996|
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1989-present: I have served as an expert consultant to the Office of Statistical Standards and the Office of Energy Markets and End Use. My responsibilities have included: writing technical reports, developing pilot models, reviewing short term and long term energy demand and supply models and forecasts, evaluation of renewable energy supplies and projections, and the analysis of energy and environmental policy scenarios requested by the U.S. Congress. I have built portions of and reviewed components of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the Regional Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The components in the NEMS were the Electricity Market Module, Renewable Fuels Module, Petroleum Market Module, Macroeconomic Activity Module, and International Market Module. These modules feed information into the analysis of environmental and green-house gas emissions for climate change analysis. My work on the STEO has involved developing and testing the econometric electricity consumption forecasting model by U.S. region and sector, a pilot international energy model, and analyzing the impact of natural gas price shocks on the industrial sector in the U.S. In addition, I have provided technical assistance to other U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) through EIA. This has included reviewing the impacts of world oil markets on natural gas prices, the U.S. economy, and strategic petroleum reserves. I designed a pilot theoretical and macroeconometric model for the U.S. to examine the sensitivity to oil price shocks. This research supported the Office of Oil and Gas and DoE's Office of Fossil Energy and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) 1992-present: I have been an expert consultant to the Office of Planning and Evaluation, Office of Finance, and the Office of the Commissioner. My responsibilities have been to provide economic and technical advice and write reports on modeling and forecasting domestic and international patent activities. I have served and participated as an Economic and Forecasting Expert to U.S. delegation at Trilateral Patent Statistics Group meetings in the U.S., the European Patent Office in Munich, Germany and the World Intellectual Property Office in Geneva, Switzerland. In other work, I have built two planning models. The first was a Simulation Model Calculator in Excel to analyze traffic at the computer workstations in the patent search facility and investment planning for the USPTO's move to Alexandria. The second involved calculating the flow in the patent process from applications to examination and patent pendency issues given the level and skills of the patent examiner corps.
Economic Research Service (ERS), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) 1995-99: I worked as a technical consultant to the ERS. I worked on projects and wrote technical reports evaluating forecasts of food price series and provided alternative forecasting models. In addition, I wrote a report describing the process for making agricultural output and price forecasts for ERS and USDA Outlook publications.
I have provided short courses (2-5 days) for the EIA and Timberlake Consultants: The courses for Timberlake have been in New York City Los Angeles, CA and Milan, Italy for clients from Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, U.K., Norway, Ghana, and Brazil. I have assisted David Hendry teaching a course on forecasting and Neil Ericsson teaching a course on modeling at the IMF annually for four years. In addtion, I have taught courses at the Norwegian Science and Technology Institute in Trondheim on Econometric Time Series Modeling. Also, I have taught an applied macroeconometric modeling and forecasting course for the Ministry of Presidential Affairs in the UAE.
Two-week Survey of Macroeconomics course September, 1995: At the International Business School, Management Training Center (USA) Inc. The students were senior Russian government officials and managers of private firms.
One-day workshops at Meridian House in Washington, D.C.: For visiting foreign journalists and government officials on the U.S. economy over the last three years. The visitors are sponsored by USAID and have come from Hungary, Russia, Kirghizstan, and Romania.
American Gas Association 2006-07: I served as an economic consultant analyzing the price elasticity of residential natural gas demand from a sample of natural gas utility companies in different regions of the United States. The work will be performed in close consultation with the Policy Analysis Group and the Chief Economist of AGA. We developed and estimated dynamic models of natural gas demand incorporating income, conservation, and technical efficiency effects.
ISO New England PowerPool 2006: I served as expert consultant reviewing and evaluating the long-run energy and seasonal peak load forecast methodologies by the ISO-NE for the region. In addition, I developed alternative forecasting models to compare with the existing models.
Exelon Power Management: 2004: I served as an economic forecasting consultant on sectoral electricity and natural gas energy sales, number of customers, and revenue. The services consisted of a qualitative evaluation of the current forecasting tools, recommendations for enhancements that could improve forecast accuracy, and provide assistance in the implementation of the enhancements.
Charles River Associates 2000-2002: I served as a consultant providing expertise on time series econometric and forecasting issues. My responsibilities were to provide written reports and make forecasts on the construction products industry. I provided support for testimony before the U.S. International Trade Commission.
PriceWaterhouseCoopers Inc. 1999: I served as a consultant writing a report on measuring Intangible Capital. The project involved analyzing different valuation methods of computing the lives of intangible assets like R&D capital.
Trade Resources, Inc 1998: I served as a consultant providing econometric advice on time series modeling and forecasting. I testified as an expert witness in an anti-dumping dispute before the Canadian International Trade Tribunal. My task was to review existing research and develop an economic forecasting model for a sector in the construction industry.
Bivings Woodell, Inc. 1997: I served as an expert consultant on two projects examining the role and importance of stock markets in the U.S. economy, conducted studies on the characteristics of firms in a stock market, and summarized academic research on pricing in asset markets. The first evaluated the performance of the top 125 firms listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The second produced an assessment of the employment and economic contributions from the chemical industry. This involved making projections from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data and input-output tables.
Chase Manhattan Bank - Office of Global Risk Management 1990: I conducted empirical research on asset pricing models.
Flight Resources Inc., Gaithersburg, MD 1988 to 1991: I served as an Economist-Board Member. The firm managed and operated small municipal airports. My responsibilities were to provide general economic advice and forecast airport revenues and fuel prices.
Seattle City Light - Economic Analyst-Paid Intern 1983-86: I examined the economic feasibility of wood-fired generating plants and determining the cost of wood fuel supply.
Department of Economics
The George Washington University
2115 G St., NW, Monroe 340
Washington, DC 20052
Phone: (202) 994-6150,
Fax: (202) 994-6147
Washington, DC 20052
Office: Monroe 313
Phone: (202) 994-4899
The views and opinions expressed in this page are those of the page author. The contents of this page have not been reviewed or approved by The George Washington University.